Warbot 1.0- AI Goes to War Read online

  Warbot 1.0

  AI Goes To War

  Brian M. Michelson

  Warbot 1.0: AI Goes To War

  Copyright © 2020 Brian M. Michelson

  All rights reserved.

  First edition published June 2020

  Cover design: The Killion Group, Inc.

  Image: This photo is in the public domain. Creator: Staff Sgt. Chris Hubenthal; Credit: Defense Media Activity–Forward Center Hawaii

  ISBN: 978-1-68068-190-1

  The characters and events portrayed in this book, except for factual historical references, are fictitious.

  No part of this book may be reproduced or stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without express written permission of the publisher.

  This book is published by War Planet Press, an imprint of the Ethan Ellenberg Literary Agency.

  You can reach the author at:

  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/BrianMichelsonAuthor

  Website: https://brianmichelson.com

  Email: [email protected]

  Warbot 1.0

  “Artificial intelligence is the future, not only of Russia, but of all mankind. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become ruler of the world.” ~ Vladimir Putin, 2017

  Warbot 1.0 offers a compelling picture of future combat as teams of Chinese, American and Filipino soldiers, enabled by AI and robotic systems, fight for their lives in a battlefield full of deadly new technologies.

  Set in 2033, China’s neighbors increasingly chafe at its heavy-handed efforts to dominate them. Taiwan teeters on the brink of declaring independence. When the newly elected president of the Republic of the Philippines attempts to eject Chinese military forces from his country, the People’s Republic of China launches a punitive expedition against the Philippines as an object lesson for the other nations bordering the South China Sea.

  Despite the changing character of war now dominated by the weaponization of artificial intelligence, robotics, big data, cyber, and all form of media, its nature remains the same: a brutal, deadly, and complicated contest of wills by the humans who have to fight it.

  Dedication

  This book is dedicated to the young men and women who will fight the next wars. My hope is that this story will give them a few ideas of what to expect.

  Acknowledgements

  So many to thank …

  This book would never have come into existence without my friend August Cole, who suggested I write a short story for the Art of the Future Project while we were at the Atlantic Council together. His mentorship and encouragement in this journey have been invaluable. To my wife for the “go for it” moment as I contemplated actually writing a novel. To my agent, Ethan Ellenberg, for believing in the book as much as I did. To Sharon Honeycutt and Raelene Gorlinsky for getting this from manuscript to “book”. To my fellow authors Sean Naylor and Bill Rohm for their counsel, encouragement, and advice. And to Steve Sicinski and Scott Gress, my longsuffering beta readers, for their ideas, encouragement, and sanity checks. And to everyone else who helped me along the way … THANK YOU!

  Table of Contents

  Forward

  Glossary

  Part 1: The Death of Homer

  Prologue

  1.0

  1.1

  1.2

  1.3

  1.4

  1.5

  1.6

  1.7

  1.8

  1.9

  Part 2: The Road to Hell

  2.0

  2.1

  2.2

  2.3

  2.4

  2.5

  2.6

  2.7

  2.8

  2.9

  2.10

  2.11

  2.12

  2.13

  2.14

  2.15

  Part 3: A Fine Mess

  3.1

  3.2

  3.3

  3.4

  3.5

  3.6

  3.7

  3.8

  3.9

  3.10

  Part 4: The Hard Way

  4.1

  4.2

  4.3

  4.4

  4.5

  4.6

  4.7

  4.8

  4.9

  4.10

  4.11

  4.12

  4.13

  Part 5: Precipice

  5.1

  5.2

  5.3

  5.4

  5.5

  5.6

  5.7

  5.8

  5.9

  Part 6: Apollyon

  6.1

  6.2

  6.3

  6.4

  6.5

  6.6

  6.7

  6.8

  6.9

  6.10

  6.11

  6.12

  Epilogue

  7.1

  7.2

  7.3

  7.4

  7.5

  Ten Real-Life Heroes

  Recommended for Further Reading

  About the Author

  About the Publisher

  Forward

  This is a true story, except that it happens in the near future. While the nature of war as a human endeavor has remained relatively consistent over time, the character of war is often determined by the basket of technologies available to the combatants at the time of the conflict. We are entering a period of rapid technological change that will create capabilities that outstrip our prevailing institutional concepts of war as robotic combat systems enabled by Artificial Intelligence (warbots), cyber warfare, directed energy weapons, and weaponized big data mature. The intent of this book is not to accurately predict the future, but to stimulate current discussion by showing previews and movie trailers of what is in the realm of the possible.

  Glossary

  AI Artificial intelligence

  ALOC Administrative and Logistics Operations Center, often referred to as the Admin Log Center; serves as a backup command post

  APS Automatic protection system

  AR Augmented reality; used heavily in command and control systems, especially helmets

  ARM Artificial intelligence/Robotic/Mechanized, a designator for specific units equipped with HOMRRs, Razorbacks and Buffalos versus older legacy systems

  ATGM Antitank guided missile

  Battalion Combat unit usually consisting of 4 to 6 companies; commanded by a lieutenant colonel

  Brigade Combat unit usually consisting of 4 to 6 battalions that serves as the basic building block of ground operations; after 2025, commanded by a brigadier general

  Buffalo A large eight-wheeled vehicle used as a mobile command and control node

  Combat Units 4 to 5 platoons = 1 company

  4 to 6 companies = 1 battalion

  4 to 6 battalions = 1 brigade

  Company Combat unit usually consisting of 4 to 5 platoons; commanded by a captain. Maneuver companies in 2020 range in size from 80 to 120 personnel plus vehicles and weapons systems. In 2033, maneuver companies range from 18 to 35 personnel plus a higher number of vehicles and weapon systems relative to 2020 companies.

  Commo Abbreviation for “communications” and refers to the ability to communicate between two entities; also referred to as “comms”

  DIYA A Chinese AI suite of combat systems

  EMP Electromagnetic pulse

  Flechette Small metal darts used as targeted shrapnel

  HOMRR Heavy Offensive Multi-Role Robot

  HSDC Headquarters, Support and Defense Company

  JLTV Joint Light Tactical Ve
hicle, a four-wheeled general utility vehicle, replacement for the HUMVEE

  Klick Slang for kilometer

  Mike(s) Slang for minute(s)

  NCO Non-commissioned officer: enlisted soldiers of the rank of corporal and higher

  PDS Point defense system, usually consisting of a combination of short-range lasers, microwave guns, antidrones and machine guns

  Psyop Psychological operations

  ROE Rules of engagement

  S2 Intelligence officer at battalion and brigade level

  S3 Operations officer at battalion and brigade level

  Sabot A high-velocity depleted uranium dart in a casing that enables the smaller dart to fit in a larger diameter, smooth bore barrel

  Saga Slang for Simplified Air Ground Intelligence Architecture (SAGIA); an AI enabled command, control and intelligence system

  Stryker An eight-wheeled multirole combat vehicle in service beginning in 2002

  TOC Tactical operations center; company command post

  TAC Tactical assault command post; often referred to as a TACP; battalion command post

  XO Executive officer, the second-in-command of brigade-, battalion-, and company-sized units

  Part 1: The Death of Homer

  “Artificial intelligence is the future, not only of Russia, but of all mankind. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become ruler of the world.” ~ Vladimir Putin, 2017

  Prologue

  From a recent online search for “How did the 2033 Sino-Pacific War begin?”

  The war began on June 25, 2033, when Chinese forces stationed in the Philippines toppled the newly elected government of Philippine President James Davila. Previous Philippine administrations had allowed the Chinese to establish military bases in the Philippines in return for economic aid, but the relationship soured with the discovery of Chinese political meddling in the 2033, and earlier, elections. Diplomatic missteps on both sides deepened the crisis and inflamed nationalist sentiments in both countries. The Chinese press stoked the Chinese sense of national pride with articles about the “great insult” and resulting loss of face, while the Philippine press painted the Chinese as neo-economic colonialists. All the stories produced the predictable outrage on both sides of the South China Sea and incidentally, advertising revenue hit an all-time high during this period.

  In what was to become a replay of the 1991 decision to eject the U.S. military from its strategic bases at Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base, President Davila ordered the Chinese military out of the country. His timing could not have been worse. Taiwan had moved to the very brink of declaring independence, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian nations continued to chafe under Chinese “Belt and Road” economic concessions, and Japanese rearmament was causing an arms race that the Chinese could ill afford.

  By mid-May 2033, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee was in crisis. They reasoned that if a relatively weak nation of 130 million on the far side of the South China Sea could defy and embarrass them, then Taiwan, barely 90 miles away and with only 27 million people, would see the situation as a green light for independence. The CCP reasoned that the other nations in Southeast Asia would feel emboldened and possibly renege on strategic basing and economic agreements. Even worse, a loss of credibility now could cause major unrest in China and threaten CCP rule, something not seriously done since the 1940s. The CCP Central Committee approved an ultimatum to the Philippines in what amounted to a modern version of the Melian Dialogue: submit or be destroyed. Yet China underestimated the Filipinos, who refused to submit. The CCP was now trapped in a high-stakes bluff that had just been called on the international stage.

  Despite the increasing risks, the CCP Central Committee chose to follow through on their threat. By the end of June 2033, the Pacific was in in the throes of a limited but new type of war in which military forces of humans, their AI support networks, and robotic systems fought a desperate battle for military and political supremacy.

  1.0

  Three months later …

  161300HSEP2033 (1:00 p.m. local time, September 16, 2033)

  80 km northwest of Manila, the Philippines

  Captain Stacy Doss felt the urge to yell to Homer, to ask him if he was okay, but that was stupid because he was dead, which made it highly unlikely that he would answer. Her favorite platoon leader was gone. Stacy felt her command helmet slip through her fingers and heard the clunk as it hit the ground. As a company commander in the U.S. Army, the weight of command started to settle on her with its full impact. Her mind was racing as she came to grips with what had just happened. Squinting in the bright sunshine, she felt the hot, humid, stagnant air fill her lungs.

  Did I miss something? Could I have done better? Was it my fault? she thought to herself.

  As she slowly stood up, she felt a bead of sweat run down her back. After making sure no one was watching, she quickly wiped a tear from her eye.

  I need to find him. I owe it to him. At least to pay my respects …

  1.1

  Four hours earlier …

  Captain Mike McGinnis, the Bravo company commander, tapped the screen and began his transmission to the battalion operations officer.

  “Viper 3, this is Bull 6, crossing phase line Tango in three minutes, will advise when we have objective Red Sox secured, over.”

  “Roger out,” came the quick reply from the battalion’s operations officer.

  Stacy heard the call, checked her display and saw Mike’s unit deployed perfectly, textbook even, on her right flank with his command vehicle squarely in the center of his column. Stacy noted that her vehicle icons were well spaced, but slightly less evenly than his. They were still sixteen kilometers north of the city of Tarlac, and the roads were getting worse.

  Good tactically and while not always right, but he’s never in doubt … about himself anyway, she thought to herself. Wish I had a little more of that.

  Stacy exhaled, adjusted her brown ponytail under her helmet, and noticed an ever-so-slight tremble in her left hand. She was told in training that it was a common reaction to stress and, in a nervous habit, began fiddling with the engagement ring hanging from her dog tags. She blinked long and hard, her eyes burning from fatigue and allergies, and the Augmented Reality (AR) display in her command helmet quickly came back into focus. As an untested commander in an untested unit, she hadn’t expected to be here.

  But here I am, she thought.

  Stacy’s command vehicle shuddered slightly as the left side began rolling over a deeper-than-expected shell crater. Her company Tactical Operations Center, or TOC, was housed in a vehicle commonly known as a Buffalo because of the way the vehicles wallowed over obstacles, even small ones. She waited for all four of the top-heavy vehicle’s left side wheels to clear the obstacle, took a deep breath, and transmitted to Mike on an internal channel.

  “Bull 6, this is Apache 6, be advised our scouts are having difficulty maintaining contact. The Chinese might be attempting to disengage. We’re also getting some intermittent jamming and have to move on Objective Cubs a bit slower than planned.”

  Mike’s only response was a brief, poor attempt at humor.

  “Chicken.”

  Really? she thought. It didn’t occur to her at the moment that he might have been feeling the pressure too.

  Stacy looked back at her virtual command screens. In the dim light of her rolling TOC, she could see the other seven members of her team who helped manage the nearly overwhelming streams of data pouring into their AR helmets. She had been training for this—the crucible of combat, the ultimate test of skills, experience, and character—since her commissioning in 2027. As she looked around and took a quick inventory of the situation, she hoped she was at least ready enough for whatever was next.

  The TOC’s interior, typical of forward-deployed command posts, smelled of the familiar potpourri of sweaty uniforms, body odor, flatulence, coffee, dip, and leftover food that someone inevitably spills on the floor and that seeped benea
th the aluminum floor panels. Combat meals had a certain consistency across the decades, and the ones that made it to the floor always seemed to be the worst-smelling of all the possibilities. Today the reek of reconstituted tuna casserole dominated the stale air. Stacy caught a whiff and grimaced slightly.

  With a few moves of her hologlove, Stacy ran the routine counter-jamming protocol and then paused briefly as she thought about how to push her scout platoon out farther. As one of the battalion’s lead units, she knew she still had to get a better feel for where the enemy was and what they were doing.

  So far, not much different than the simulations, she caught herself thinking.

  Although the latest version of the Mission Command software still had some teething issues, it was a huge step forward from the very first version, which had been an unmitigated disaster. The Army’s second attempt was only slightly better, and it wasn’t until the Army brought in an augmented-reality gaming company that the system improved dramatically.

  Stacy studied the AR display pensively and from the multitude of angles allowed by the 3D image. Slowly, tentatively, she moved her right hand, encased in the hologlove, to the location of the scout platoon icon. Grabbing it gently, she moved it to another part of the map and then released it. The scout platoon icon settled on the map as a future position along with a route of march, time estimate for arrival, and expected reconnaissance radius.

  “Maybe that’s where they’re hiding,” she said in a barely audible voice as she touched the “confirm” icon.

  Her scout platoon leader received the order and would begin to execute it within the intent and engagement parameters issued three days ago in her formal operations. This order was also automatically CCed to her higher headquarters. This created the opportunity for a dynamic tension as the idea of “disciplined initiative” remained easy to say, but harder to execute when a headquarters could electronically eavesdrop on nearly any subordinate unit in real time. Fortunately, her battalion commander, Lieutenant Colonel Richard “Buck” Gammon, known as Viper 6, was a case study in “old-school” professional restraint, a philosophy he imposed ruthlessly on his staff.